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  • Nov 11th, 2005
  • Comments Off on BoE holds interest rates at 4.5 percent
The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5 percent on Thursday but analysts are locked in a heated debate over when and what the central bank's next move will be.

All 44 analysts polled by Reuters last week had predicted the Monetary Policy Committee would keep the repo rate unchanged this month - a dramatic turnaround from a month ago when many had been predicting a November cut.

A slim majority still expects the MPC to follow up its quarter percentage point August rate cut to shore up economic growth, although not until the new year. But a growing number say the worst may be over, and inflation is on the rise, meaning rates could climb next year.

"The raging monetary policy debate has not advanced," said David Page, an economist at Investec in London, who is one of those who expects rates to fall again next year.

Financial markets have begun to entertain the prospect of a rate rise next year. Inflation climbed to 2.5 percent in September, the third month the rate was above the MPC's 2.0 percent target.

That shift in view comes alongside rising expectations for a European Central Bank rate hike and no signals from US Federal Reserve officials that they are ready to pause their monetary tightening campaign soon.

The data have been mixed since the MPC's last meeting, giving policymakers plenty of reason to leave rates steady and wait for a clearer read on where the economy is heading.

The MPC's latest growth and inflation forecasts, used at this week's meeting, will be key for the rate outlook when they are published in the quarterly Inflation Report next Wednesday.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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